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Mr W
7-3 +10.6 Units
Mr W & HKC are releasing a Consensus Play in the National Championship for Thursday Night !!!! This one has been in discussion with the complete BPO Team, and after all the discussion, Mr W & HKC are the 2 who see eye to eye, and decided that this deserves to be a play! Here we go!
Texas is hoping for an encore performance of that magical night, a 41-38 upset of USC behind quarterback Vince Young. It’s Colt McCoy’s turn now, as he plays his final game for the Longhorns. He is undefeated in bowl games, part of a five-game bowl winning streak for head coach Mack Brown’s club. The Crimson Tide are just 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS in their L8 bowl games. They are 4.5-point favorites and the chalk has won just 2 of the last 7 National Title games.
TEXAS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) vs. excellent passing defenses allowing 5.25 or less passing yards/att since 1992.
We like our chances with Colt McCoy in this one! We feel Texas with put up the effort to dampen the Bama Rush, and force them into passing the ball. With that being the case, we believe this can and will be a tight battle, and will take the points given to us! The Public is on Bama, which we actually like to see!
Mr W / HKC 4**** Consensus is on TEXAS +4.5 (loss)
| Both teams bring a perfect record to this game. I'm hearing alot of talk how good TCU is and I do believe they are a good team. The problem is Boise State is a good team which is hungary. Their offense has put up huge numbers and their QB has thrown for 30 Tds and just 3 ints. Boise had some trouble towards the end of the giving up big plays but has been addresed by coach Peterson, this is a team that held Oregon to 8 points. If this Broncos run d can just contain TCUs attack this game will be a close war, can't wait for this one, let's go mighty smurfs. |
Boise State + 7.5 for 4.5 Mr W Units (WIN)
Tennessee started off the year 0-2 but rebounded nicely vs some good teams. Their defense is ranked 27th giving up 21ppg, not bad when u hold Florida to 23 points, bama to 12 and south carolina to 13. V-tech is a very good team but their QB tends to take sacks and hold the ball vs competitive teams. Tenny is a good team and this program wants this game bad with alot of new faces hired to bring life back into this football team. Look for a close one throughout and I've been very impressed with the improved play of Tenny QB
Tennesee +6 for 3 Mr W units (loss)
LSU and Penn State is sure to be a hardnose game. Both teams are run first and have strong defenses. Both teams suffered a few losses to some very good teams but I feel Penn State has been a bit more consistant and has a far better o-line. In the end Penn State and their #4 defense should prevail
Penn State pk for 3 units (WIN)
Florida vs Cinci
This is a game where I"m choosing not to write about the numbers. Both teams can pass, both D"s have high Int ratio"s, and both teams are losing thier coaches. Florida ended the year getting smashed by Bama while Cinci had a dramatic come from behind win to beat a good Pitt team. Alot of pressure is on Florida for this game plus they have had trouble putting teams away all year long. I'll take the double digit dog with an NFL prospect as their QB surrounded be talent.
Cinci Bearcats +13 for 4 units (loss)
UCLA is a 4 point fav playing Temple. Temple has a better record but reason being they had a light schedule and whenever they played speed they got hammered pretty good. Pennstate held them to 6 points, Ohio held them to 17 points. Don't be fooled by the 6-6 record of the Bruins. They got beat by some pretty good teams including Oregon, USC, Stanford etc. This team has 19ints on the year the their D flys around the ball. I can't see Temple making up points in this game especially if they get down early. In order for Temple to make this a team they will have to run very effectively which I don't see happening vs's a speedy defense. Temple has heart and a great season but I think UCLA may be a just a bit too much for them.
UCLA -4 for 3 Mr W Units (WIN)
We have Georgia giving 7 points to a potent Tex A&M team on paper. This A&M team gives up alot of yardage to just about everybody, combine that with the power of the Bulldogs run game the Aggies may be in some trouble. The Aggies gave up 600 yards to Texas, 640 to the Sooners, Colorado put up 35 on them and Kansas state put up 62. Georgia has some new coaches for this game because Richt is very upset with his defense. Look for a highly motivated Bulldog team to set the pace in this one and re-establish their program as an elite team.
Georgia Bulldogs -7 for 3.5 Units (WIN)
Pittsburgh ended the year by missing an extra point and missing the bowl game they wanted. Pitt relies on their run offense to open up any sort of passing game. The Pitt D has been tortured and they have had probs getting off the field. Now Pitt must get motivated for a bowl game they thought they were better then and North Carolina is an all around bad matchup for them. They stuff they run, beat times like VT, Miami, and BC which tells me they will have no problem with Pitt's O-line. Look for a grind and NC pulls this one out.
North Carolina +3 for 3 Units (WIN)
Boston College was somewhat of a surprise team this year having a winning record with a freshman QB. They beat some decent teams but when stepped up to some good teams got smoked. They could not do anything playing teams like VT, Clemson and NC, they even stuggled playing an Irish team who's D was beat all year. I don't see them being able to move the ball much on USC's defense. USC is young and will be pumped for this game after having a subpar year to USC standards. This team is still fast, well coached and if they get ahead early I don't see Boston's College pass game pulling them back in this game. Lets go red and yellow.
USC Trojans -7 for 3.5 Units (WIN)
BYU vs Oregon State. Both teams had a great year and both ended on different notes. BYU battled a tough Utah and won, Oregon State lost a heartbreaker to Oregon. BYU got smoked by Florida State and TCU. BYU threw for 365 yards vs's Florida State so we know they can move the ball but they had 5 turnover's in that game. They threw on opponents such as Wyoming, Air Force and Utah. I think they will be able to put up a good bit of points vs this Oregon State squad. Throughout the year Oregon State has had some problems vs's the pass. The main reason Im playing BYU is I really think they will be the motivated team in this one, they have a veteran QB, a good running game when needed and their D has played solid all year. If they can make Oregon State 1 dimensional and take away their run we have a winner.
BYU +2.5/3 for 3 Mr W Units (WIN)
HKC
10-5-1 +17.5 Units
Mr W & HKC are releasing a Consensus Play in the National Championship for Thursday Night !!!! This one has been in discussion with the complete BPO Team, and after all the discussion, Mr W & HKC are the 2 who see eye to eye, and decided that this deserves to be a play! Here we go!
Texas is hoping for an encore performance of that magical night, a 41-38 upset of USC behind quarterback Vince Young. It’s Colt McCoy’s turn now, as he plays his final game for the Longhorns. He is undefeated in bowl games, part of a five-game bowl winning streak for head coach Mack Brown’s club. The Crimson Tide are just 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS in their L8 bowl games. They are 4.5-point favorites and the chalk has won just 2 of the last 7 National Title games.
TEXAS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) vs. excellent passing defenses allowing 5.25 or less passing yards/att since 1992.
We like our chances with Colt McCoy in this one! We feel Texas with put up the effort to dampen the Bama Rush, and force them into passing the ball. With that being the case, we believe this can and will be a tight battle, and will take the points given to us! The Public is on Bama, which we actually like to see!
Mr W / HKC 4**** Consensus is on TEXAS +4.5
1/6/2010 7:00pm
Current Line: Central Michigan -3
The GMAC Bowl series has produced the most lopsided games of any bowl series in recent years, as favorites are on an incredible 7-0 SU and ATS run, winning by an average margin of 30.3 points per game. Central Michigan hopes that trend continues. The Chippewas got here by virtue of an 11-2 record and third conference title in the L4 years. The 2009 group was the best of the bunch, however, evidenced by the 33.2-to-17.2 scoring differential. Senior and four-year starting quarterback Dan LeFevour plays his last game for Central Michigan. Troy is again the Sun Belt champ and comes in with a 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS mark. The Trojans have played in three prior bowl games, going 1-2 SU and ATS.
C MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was C MICHIGAN 38.3, OPPONENT 27.7
Play Central Michigan -3, HKC 3* (Push)
All seemed lost for Iowa after losing back-to-back games in early November, yet the Hawkeyes still find themselves BCS bound, taking on Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl. What’s most promising is that the extra time off gave injured quarterback Ricky Stanzi more time to get healthy. He missed the last two games but is listed as probable here and is almost certain to go. Iowa has been a sound bowl team, going 7-3 ATS in its L10 and underdogs are on a run of 8-2 ATS in those games. Underdogs in the Orange Bowl are on a 5-1 ATS run.
IOWA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was IOWA 25.6, OPPONENT 12.3
IOWA is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=5.25 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
The average score was IOWA 33.3, OPPONENT 22.4
HKC 21-8 Bowl System Play
Play Iowa +5, HKC 5***** (WIN)
Two of this year’s bowl games are rematches of a year ago. For Boise State and TCU, the stakes are much higher this time as the teams step up from the Poinsettia to Fiesta Bowl. Both team crashed the BCS party by going unbeaten. Of course, with pointspreads in play, one team has to play the role of favorite, and that is TCU (-7). The Horned Frogs were dominant on both sides of the ball, and boast the country’s No. 2-ranked defense in yards per play. Boise State did its best work on offense, scoring 44.2 points per game, ranking No. 1 nationally. In terms of bowl success, it’s all TCU, which owns a 5-1 SU and ATS record in its L6. The Broncos are 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS in their L5. Defense prevails in post season games in most cases, and will in this one. Lay the points with the King of The Mountain West, a division who has owned this bowl season.
TCU is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.
Play TCU -7, HKC 3* (loss)
1/2/2010 2pm
Current Line: Ole Miss -3
Ole Miss and Oklahoma State last met in the 2004 Cotton Bowl, with quarterback Eli Manning and the Rebels pulling out a 31-28 win in his finale. Another senior quarterback plays his last game for Ole Miss in the 2010 Classic in Jevan Snead. Oklahoma State has the better record (9-3) versus a tougher schedule, yet plays as the three-point underdog. It is 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS as bowl game underdog. With the return of starting QB Robinson we like the Cowboys to not only cover but to win this one in the new home of the Cotton Bowl.
OKLAHOMA ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992.
The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 30.9, OPPONENT 25.0
HKC 19-5 Bowl System Play
Play Oklahoma State +3, HKC 3* (loss)
12/31/2009 7:30pm
Current Line: Virginia Tech -5.5
The Volunteers and Hokies will send off 2009 in the last college football game of the calendar year, the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. Virginia Tech is a midrange favorite after finishing 9-3 and winning its L4 games both SU and ATS, while allowing just 8.8 points per game!!! In his first season as a full time quarterback Tyrod Taylor better established himself as a pocket passer and finished with career highs of 2,102 yards and 13 touchdowns while throwing only four interceptions in 226 attempts, much improved over his sophomore season at VT. Stingy defense prevails in the "Eat more Chicken" Bowl.
VIRGINIA TECH is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was VIRGINIA TECH 27.8, OPPONENT 15.6
Play Virginia Tech -5.5, HKC 3* (WIN)
1/1/2010 11:00am
Current Line: Auburn -8
The Wildcats haven’t played on Jan. 1 since 1997. They are a 8 point underdog to an Auburn team, which won just two of its L7 games in 2009. That could prove to be an important line position, as the underdog has covered the number each of the L5 times the pointspread exceeded four points in this bowl series. The Tigers were 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in their recent bowl span. Northwestern won its L3 games both SU and ATS to finish at 8-4. Two teams who finished in opposite directions in this one, we'll nab the dog who we feel has an outright shot.
AUBURN is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games off 2 straight losses against conference rivals since 1992.
The average score was AUBURN 14.7, OPPONENT 29.4
Play Northwestern +8, HKC 3* (WIN)
1/1/2010 1:00pm
Current Line: Penn State -2.5
Penn State has gone 7-3 in bowl games since 1995. They’ll look to bust out offensively in the 2010 game, which should be defensive oriented. Penn State yielded just 11.8 points per game, en route to a 10-2 SU and 6-6 ATS record. Penn State was a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS on the road this year. LSU's offense figures to struggle if tailback Charles Scott can't go. The Tigers leading rusher broke his collarbone in early November and missed the last three games, though he returned to practice Dec. 14 and currently is questionaateble. Regardless of who receives the bulk of the carries, the Tigers will face a stiff challenge up front. Penn State's defense is 10th nationally against the run 93.9 ypg and eighth overall 277.1ypg. We love the Lions laying under a FG here, unlike most of the public.
LSU is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons.
Play Penn St -2.5, HKC 3* (Graded ass loss since line released early in week at -2.5, most won with pk & 1)
1/1/2010 5:00pm
Current Line: Oregon -4
With as much success as the two programs have had recently, it’s hard to believe that Ohio State is making its first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1997 and Oregon since 1995. Both teams boast 10-2 records, but it will be a contrast of styles in Pasadena. The Buckeyes lean on their defense, 12.2 points per game allowed. Oregon prefers to outscore teams, 37.7 points per game. Ohio State is looking to snap a three game bowl losing streak, while the Ducks have won their last two. Oregon head coach Chip Kelly’s team is a 4 point favorite, but underdogs have covered eight of these teams L10 bowl games. Oregon's offense will be tested by a defense that's limiting opponents to 12.2 points and 262.5 total yards per game, and an average of 83.4 yards on the ground, fifth in the nation. Ohio State is one of five FBS teams that did not allow a 100-yard individual rushing performance. After a 26-18 loss at Purdue on Oct. 17, Ohio State closed the month with a pair of easy wins, setting the stage for a HUGE November. The Buckeyes won 24-7 at then # 10 Penn State and 27-24 in overtime over then #.13 Iowa before wrapping up the outright Big Ten title with a 21-10 victory at Michigan. We'll ride the hot surging team with the excellent defense to the bank.
Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO ST) - with an opportunistic defense - forcing 2.5 or more turnovers/game, after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.
(53-20 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.6%)
Play Ohio State +4, HKC 4* (WIN)
1/2/2009 2:00pm
Current Line: S Carolina -4.5
Connecticut was the nation’s best spread-covering team in 2009, going 10-2 against the number, including 6-0 ATS as an underdog. As backers of the Huskies in the Papa John’s Bowl will look to go to the well one more time, as UConn plays as a 4.5-point underdog to South Carolina. Both teams boast 7-5 records. South Carolina has struggles to generate offense all season long and against a highly inspired UCONN team we don't expect them to turn it around today. We fully expect the Huskies to win this game and chalk up a huge W for their fallen brother.
CONNECTICUT is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog this season.
S CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Play Connecticut +4.5, HKC 4* (WIN)
12/30/2009, 8pm
Current Line: Arizona -1
Nebraska was a foot away from an upset of Texas and a BCS berth in the Big 12 title game. Instead, the Longhorns’ winning field goal snuck inside the upright. Now the Cornhuskers must settle for the Holiday Bowl in San Diego, taking on Arizona. The Wildcats themselves were seconds away from upsetting Oregon a few weeks back, which could have meant a Rose Bowl berth. In that regard, this could be the disappointment bowl of 2009. The Huskers arrive in San Diego boasting one of the best defenses in the nation. Nebraska is second in the Football Bowl Subdivision in points allowed at 11.2 per game and ninth in total defense, giving up an average of 284.5 yards. The Huskers held Texas to 202 total yards even though it had been averaging 451.6 yards and 43.0 points. We feel the Pac 10 is a little soft and thrives on finesse type games so let's see how they stand up against the tough-nosed defense like Big Red brings to the table. We predict it not to go so well for the Pac-10 as has been shown so far in this bowl season.
NEBRASKA is 26-10 ATS (+15.0 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better since 1992.
The average score was NEBRASKA 29.9, OPPONENT 24.1
HKC 8-2 Bowls System Play
Play Nebraska +1, HKC 3* (WIN)
5:00pm
Current Line: Georgia -6.5
SEC teams have had their way in the Independence Bowl in recent years, winning eight of their L10 appearances while going 7-3 ATS. Georgia will look to continue that trend when it takes on Texas A&M here. The Bulldogs are close to a touchdown favorite and boast one of the best recent bowl records of any college team, 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS since 1998. Overall in non-conference road games, Georgia is on an impressive run of 21-6 ATS. Texas A&M reaches Shreveport with a 6-6 SU and 6-5 ATS mark, but is riding the momentum of a near-upset of Texas. The Aggies have struggled in bowl games, winning one of their last eight.
GEORGIA is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
The average score was GEORGIA 28.6, OPPONENT 19.5
Play Georgia -6.5, HKC 3* (WIN)
12/26, 4:30pm
Current Line: Pitt-3
Charlotte hosts its annual bowl game pitting the ACC vs. the Big East. North Carolina plays in its home state, taking on the Pitt Panthers. This is actually the third time since 2004 that the Tar Heels play in the Meineke Car Care Bowl, but they have lost the prior two. They were 8-4 SU and 6-5 ATS in 2009 and seemed to play their best football at the end, going 4-1 SU and ATS in their final five contests. Pittsburgh looks to pick up the pieces of shattered BCS dreams, as the Panthers were a minute away from an upset of Cincinnati and a trip to the Sugar Bowl two weeks ago. Overall, they were 9-3 but lost their last two. They haven’t won a bowl game since 2003 and are 0-3 SU and ATS in that span. With the heartbreaking loss to Cincinnati we don't see Pit having the interest in this game that will be needed to beat the home state Heels and their stingy defense.
Play Against - Any team (PITTSBURGH) - good passing team (7.5-8.3 PYA) against a poor passing team (5.6-6.4 PYA) after 7+ games, in non-conference games.
(28-6 since 1992.) (82.4%)
Play North Carolina +3, HKC 3* (WIN)
12/27, 8:30pm
Current Line: Clemson -7
The 2009 Music City Bowl matches up Kentucky and Clemson. The Tigers are the heavy favorite, laying 7 points. They were upset in 2006 by the same team in the same bowl 28-20. The 2009 Clemson team lost in the ACC title game and carries the disappointment of yet another season without a BCS bowl berth. The Tigers were 8-5 SU and 7-5 ATS, but just 2-3 vs. fellow bowl teams. They are looking to snap a three game SU and ATS losing streak in bowl games. Kentucky is 7-5 with two sizeable upset wins to its credit against SEC powers Auburn and Georgia. The Wildcats are in this game for the fourth time in five bowl appearances and have won three straight bowl games overall.
Kentucky is 2-0 against the spread versus Clemson since 1992
Play Kentucky +7, HKC 4* (loss)
8:00pm
Current Line: California -3
The Golden Bears are putting their 4 game bowl winning streak on the line vs Utah this evening in the Poinsettia Bowl. The Bears bowl success pales in comparison to Utah's as the Utes own the nations longest active bowl game winning streak..8 games!! They are 6-2 ATS in those, including 6-1 ATS as an underdog. Utah finished 9-3 for the season in a very good Mountain West. The Utes boast a 24-10 ATS mark when playing rested.
UTAH is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
The average score was UTAH 28.8, OPPONENT 17.4
Play Utah +3.5 -125, HKC 3* (buy hook if needed) (WIN)
8:00pm
Current Line: Rutgers -2.5
The second annual St. Petersburg Bowl game from the Tropicana Dome is a battle of Knights. UCF is a slight underdog to a Rutgers team that finished 8-4 in 2009 out of the Big East. The bowl histories of these teams are very different, as UCF is seeking its first ever bowl game win, and is playing in just its third postseason contest. The Scarlet Knights have won three straight bowl games (all as favorites). They boast a 24-12 ATS record in non-conference games under head coach Greg Schiano. Dating back to 2002 small favorites, or those of -3.5 or less, have been particularly dominant in pre-Christmas Day bowl games over the last seven years, 16-2 SU & 15-3 ATS.
RUTGERS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was RUTGERS 30.0, OPPONENT 18.2
Play Rutgers -2.5, HKC 3* (WIN)
PC
8-2 +22.3 Units
Texas vs. Bama
At first, I looked at this game and thought the under was the play. But I really analyzed it and believe we need to ride the over. Let's start with some stats:
**Texas has only gone under 34 points once this year...to Nebraska in the Big XII Championship.
**Texas averages 40.1 points a game. Alabama averages 31.7 points a game offensively.
**Both teams have put up good numbers against top defenses. Bama scored 26 @ Auburn, 24 vs. LSU, 32 vs. Florida to name a few. Texas bit the dust against Nebraska, but is an absolute juggernaut on offense.
Here's my logic. The whole world expected a defensive struggle with Bama/Gators in the SEC championship. It ended up smoking the over total. Many people think Texas's offense got exposed by Nebraska, but put simply, they had a flat game. Su and the Husker's defense sacked Colt 10 times and he got decimated. No way in hell that offensive line lets that happen again. I have my own opinion on who wins and covers this game, but I think Texas is going to have to play from behind and that can only lead to points. They play a no huddle offense and Shipley and McCoy will have some big plays. In addition, if Texas is down, they might make some offensive mistakes and Bama's defense is very opportunistic on points scored. Bama is a grind it out offense, but I was really surprised to see they average over 30 a game scored in the defensive minded SEC. I think we have a similar game to that of the SEC championship and I will back the over to the tune of 4****'s.
There are so many factors to consider and an argument can be made both ways for an under or over. I thought the total listed was high for these top flight defenses but both coach's have had a substantial amount of time to get their offenses and defenses ready. I expect gadget plays out of both teams and some trickeration to slow down their opponent's defense. Texas has the horses to try and make this game a track meet. We've also seen Texas give up some points to teams with offense. All we need is 7 td's and I think with the high scoring averages and the opportunistic defenses (mark my words, the defenses will score some points tonight) we have to ride the over.
PC's National Championship total play:
Over 45 1/2 4**** (Will advise you take up to 47) (WIN)
Iowa vs Georgia Tech
1-05-2010
8:10 PM EST
Again, I am rolling the dog. Iowa has one of the best defenses in the nation and they go against offensive juggernaut G Tech and their incredibly talented QB Josh Nesbitt. We all know G Tech can run, run, and then run some more. However, this is the classic offense meets defense matchup and I'll take the underrated Hawkeyes to keep it close if not win outright.
**Iowa has allowed 15.5 points a game.
**G Tech allowed 34, 30, 10 (Duke), 27 and 31 points against teams that don't have good defenses.
I really see Iowa's defense slowing down, but not stopping Nesbitt. The line is high enough that I will take the dog to cover if not win outright. That great defense should slow down, not stop, but slow down the Jackets and their offense should do very well against a suspect Jackets defense. I'm on the dog yet again.
PC 3*** on Iowa +4 (WIN)
Northwestern vs. Auburn
11:00 AM EST January 1'st
Shake off that hangover and roll with me on the Wildcats of Northwestern. Everyone is going to remember that excellent effort Auburn put up against bama, but let's get real. Some numbers to start with:
**Auburn is 7-5, but take that average record with a grain of salt. They are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games to to end the season.
**Northwestern is clearly peaking, finishing the season 4-1 SU with wins over bowl players Iowa and Wisconsin.
**Would you believe Northwestern's defense is actually better than Auburn's allowing 23.6 a game to Auburn's 25.9?
Guys, I run a bowl pool and every year there is that one game that everyone thinks is cash money easy. So far, my players have been getting burned left and right with big timber on Nevada and Fresno State. Well, now we have the same scenario. Two teams that are clearly going in opposite directions. I have had the "pleasure" (and that's huge sarcasm) of watching Northwestern 3 times to end the year and Auburn's defense is going to have trouble with the dink and dunk offense. I also like Northwestern's ability to contain the run and they will force run heavy Auburn to wing it. We gotta roll the dog.
PC 3*** on Northwestern +7 (WIN)
The True Rose Bowl
Oregon vs. Ohio State
5:30 PM EST
I am absolutely going to smoke this under. For anyone that has watched the Big X this year, Ohio State can't light the lamp against anyone. We all saw what the Ducks and their talented QB did in the second half of the season, but they are going against a rock solid defense and coach in Jim Tressell and the Buckeyes. I am taking this under to the bank.
**Ohio State has allowed 12.2 points a game this year.
**Oregon has allowed 23.2 points a game this year.
**Ohio State is 7-3-2 ATS on the under this year.
You may or may not know that the Big X has lost 7 straight rose bowls. Tressell and the Buckeyes are truly amped for this game and I fully expect them to have a game plan to contain the high octane Ducks offense. In addition, Ohio State is not a track meet team as noticed on their stellar under record this year. This game screams easy money to me and is my first 4**** in my Bowl Pack Part II.
PC 4**** on Rose Bowl under 50 ½ (WIN)
1-02-2010
UCONN vs. South Carolina
PC BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR
We smoked my bowl game of the year last year as Utah beat Basma SU as a 10 point dog. This year I am rolling and investing in UCONN to absolutely do the same thing to Spurrier's Gamecocks. Let's get into the numbers and logic.
**UCONN is 9-2 ATS on the year and I have been laying on them all season.
**South Carolina averages 21.8 points a game, a full 10 point difference to the Huskies 32.1 average.
**South Carolina has finished the season 2-4 SU and is limping into this game with some key defensive players injured or out.
I have two main reasons we are going to lay on the Huskies as my Bowl Game of the year 2010:
1.) JASPER HOWARD: The inspirational defensive starter who was killed in an off campus altercation has not been forgotten. The players have played incredible football since he died and has covered every game since including a thriller win @ Notre Dame. This team has publicly stated they are dedicating this last game of the season to Jasper and plan on placing the MVP trophy on his grave. Strong words yet very strong motivation.
2.) South Carolina has really finished the season weakly offensively. Sure, we got the ole ball coach running the offense, but you have to have the horses to win the race.
The Cocks scored 14,16, 13, and 14 points in their last 4 games. That's not going to get it done against this motivated Husky team. I fully expect a SU win by UCONN but I am rolling the points and invite you to cash with me on my Bowl Pool Game of the year.
PC 5***** on UCONN +4 ½ (WIN)
Boise State @ TCU
BCS "mid major" game
8:10 PM EST 1-4-2010
Not a huge write up here. I'm going to go with my logic. TCU in their first BCS game and playing with all kinds of nerves expecting a split championsihp if they make an impression. Boise has been here time and time again and pulled off one great upset over Oklahoma recently in the BCS. I am not impressed at all with TCU's schedule (altough the same argument can be made for Boise). But I like the experience factos in droves. Tell me who has blown out Boise State in the last 4 years? Tell me how many teams have covered a 7 point favorite line over Boise in the last 4 years? The answer is 2 teams in 5 years. That's right 2..and it's been 3 years since it has happened. Boise is strong, TCU is strong, but not 7 points stronger. I think Boise's defense is vastly underrated and I think TCU's defense is a little overrated. I'm taking the dog and fully expect a classic.
Boise State +7 4**** (WIN)
December 22nd
Oregon State vs BYU
8:00 PM EST
Gentlemen, I kick off my bowl season with the first of many dogs. I have only one favorite on the card thru 12/31 and I think this bowl season will see the dogs barking big time. Let's get after it:
Oregon State is a solid team and they have the ability to put up points, but this is a very bad matchup for them. In analyzing both schedules, let's remember that OSU played in a down year in the Pac 10. Let's get right into the trends and numbers:
**BYU is 9-4-1 ATS in it's last 14 games against the Pac 10 as a dog or favored by 4 or less.
**87% of the public on Oregon State as a small favorite.
**BYU has 2 losses all year, to TCU and FSU. Their 10 wins include wins over bowl bound Oklahoma, Utah, and bowl winner Wyoming.
**OSU has 4 losses to respectable competition but their winning ledger is not impressive to me. Portland State and UNLV are not powerhouses but they do have some quality wins.
**BYU is averaging 35 points a game in it's last 4 games.
This game is going to be a shoot out. (See free play) but I expect OSU to come in overconfident and BYU to come in gunning. The Cougars can play football and 10-2 SU with wins over 3 bowl teams is very impressive to me. Yes Oregon State beat Stanford, but when Stanford was down to start the year. I really like BYU to pull the upset and keep the crazy start of the bowl season going. No one saw Wyoming coming and I like this game in the same regard. BYU wins outright but I'm taking the 2 chalk anyways.
PC 3*** on BYU +2.5/3 (WIN)
Tuesday december 29'th 4:30 PM EST
Temple vs. UCLA
I like the Owls in this spot. UCLA has been a horrific team all year that finished strong against weak competition to get into a bowl game. If Army beats Navy, the Bruins are sitting at home during bowl season. Temple is quietly a strong team to back as evidenced by their 8-3 ATS record (one of the best in college football) this season. No one thinks of Temple being a team to lay cash on, but this Temple Owls team is 9-1 SU in it's last 10 games compared to UCLA's dreadful 3-6 SU record to finish the season. Two teams going in opposite directions to finish the season. I ask you this, who wants it more. A Bruins team who is travelling to the East Coast and playing at RFK; or an Owls team that will have tons of home fans excited to be in a bowl game for the first time in a long time. Temple has a good defense and combine that with UCLA's inability to score (gone over 24 points once in their last 11 games) and I am backing the Owls.
PC 3*** on Temple +5 (loss)
Wednesday December 30'th 8:00 PM EST
Arizona vs. Nebraska
My first 4**** of the bowl season. Someone please tell me why Zona is favored in this game. Did anyone see the performance of the Nebraska defense against the mighty Longhorns? Does anyone realize that Nebraska is 8-5 ATS and 3-0 ATS as dog against ranked teams this year (Vtech 16-15, Win over OU as a 5 point dog 10-3, and 1 point loss to Texas as a 15 1/2 point dog)?
Arizona doesn't impress me. Usually I'm a strong backer of the Pac 10 in bowls, but this year it's going to catch up with them.
As a favorite in lined games Arizona is 3-4 ATS in games this year. Nebraska is obviously playing very good football and the Wildcats are going to have serious trouble with Nebraska's defense. Yes, the Cats have beaten Stanford and USC, but I'm not sold on that. They scored over 40 against Wash. State, one of the worst teams in the BCS and that's their only big offensive output other than a high scoring affair over an Oregon State team I faded earlier in the bowl season. Nebraska will dominate this game and their offense will pose problems for Arizona who will have to deal with the duel running/passing threat Bo Pellini is installing at NU. I have to back the Huskers as my first 4**** bowl play of the year. Nebraska finished the regular season 4-1 (UT loss) while Zona finished 2-2. Nebraska's Big Red Army travels well and the Husker faithful will outsell Zona fans in San Diego. Mark my words on that one. This will be a home game for Nebraska in San Diego.
PC 4**** on Nebraska + 2 (WIN)
Navy @ Mizzou
December 31'st 3:30 PM EST
My 2nd 4**** of the bowl season. I'm telling you right now that Mizzou is going to wax Navy. Did you know that Mizzou ranks 7'th in the country in rushing defense? Did you know that Navy is in the bottom 5 of teams of D-1 schools in pass attempts per game? How in the hell is Navy going to keep up with the high octane offense of Missouri? Here's a key piece of insight on this game. The Tigers are building a very strong recruiting class and 5 5***** recruits are going to be at this game who are undecided. Mizzou has already landed 2 top 100 recruits and this game is pivotal for gary Pinkel to convince these players to come and play in his high octane pro set offense. I've seen Navy play a few times this year and they have a good running game, but that plays into Missouri's strength on defense. In addition, Mizzou has the best WR in the ocuntry in my opinion and no one on Navy can match up with him. I am not a Big XII homer as I'm going against Okie State big time in my second set of bowl games. Some stats:
**Navy is 1-5-1 ATS in it's last 7 games.
**Mizzou finished the season 4-1 SU averaging 39 points a game in those 5 games.
I can't see any reason that Mizzou doesn't win this game by double digits. I love Academies and the tough play they bring to the gridirion, but this is a very bad matchup for the Midshipmen and I can't see them hanging with the Tigers who have played a very tough schedule this year.
PC 4**** on Missouri -6 ½ (loss)
Note: All lines were done on 12/20. I am already booked on these games and you might some movement.
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