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Graded Results |
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WIN ... WIN
Big XII
Baylor vs. K State
9:00 PM EST
Yes, Baylor burned me last night. Yes, they won all 3 matchups vs. Texas tonight. Do they have anything left in the tank after last night's emotional win? Sure they do, but I'm backing K State. The Wildcats looked great in an easy win against a very hot Okie State team. The Cats played great and they will have the hometown KC crowd backing them tonight. There will be some Jayhawk fans rooting for them to lose, but secretly, everyone in that building wants a K State/KU finale in the Sprint Center. I was very impressed with the quickness and outside shooting of Baylor, but K State has a great guard tandem in Clemente and Pullen. K State's weakness is their inside game and Baylor will not be able to exploit that. This should be a good game but I'm taking K State. The cats won in Baylor, the Bears won in Manhatten. Who plays better defense? K State. Who's playing for more? K State. This should be a great game and I initially wanted to go 5 units but Baylor scared me back down to 3 on K State tonight.
K State -1 1/2 PC 3***
A-10
Round 3 in the battle of Ohio
Dayton vs. Xavier
6:30 PM EST
I'm 2-0 this year in this series hitting Dayton as a side and the over. Today I'm advocating an over in this game. I watched both Dayton/Xavier tilts this year and they were both very entertaining games. These two teams hate each other and on a neutral court, I had a real tough time picking a side so I went after the total. Some stats:
**the over is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 in this series.
**The 2 games this year landed on 152 and 145 with listed totals of 134 and 135.
**Dayton covered both games this year including a 90 point output at home last time out.
**In last year's A-10 tourney these two hooked up and landed on 139 total with a listed total of 126.
For those of you that have been with me throughout the year, you know I like Dayton and think they are a very athletic team. This game might start slow but Dayton loves to push and Xavier will use that inside out game that has been working so well for them lately.
PC 3*** on Round III Dayton/Xavier over 134
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WIN
The Memphis Grizzlies have put together a franchise-record winning streak on the road. Matching that success at home, however, has been much more difficult. Memphis, which is opening a three-game homestand, won its last game there Monday, beating league-worst New Jersey 107-101 to snap an eight-game home losing streak. The Knicks are already assured of their franchise-record ninth consecutive losing season after falling 97-87 at San Antonio on Wednesday for their 13th loss in 16 games. "Whether we win or not ... everybody wants to win, but the objective is, we'd better be competing," coach Mike D'Antoni said. "And that's what we are doing." The Knicks are expected to have Eddy Curry available as he attempts to come back from left knee surgery. This should be a nice boost for a team playing with nothing to lose. We'll take the points tonight as we see a 4 point game here.
NEW YORK is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 103.9, OPPONENT 103.6
NEW YORK is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 102.3, OPPONENT 106.9
Play NY Knicks +8, HKC 3*
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WIN ... loss ... loss
Take Xavier -2 1/2 over Dayton at 6:30 tonight for 3 units...
I have -2 1/2 but I see -3 in a lot of places so get this one in early. Xavier is the far superior team here and I think they really want to avenge that blow out loss they had against Dayton last month. Xavier is coached very well and actually are better statistically than Dayton. Xavier scores more points per game, they shoot the ball better from the field and free throw line, they are the better rebounding team, and are better at not turning over the ball.
Xavier has won 9 out of their last 10 whereas Dayton have been playing mediocre ball. Also, these trends favor Xavier heavily. Xavier is 8-3 ats over their last 11. The favorite in this series is 13-4 ats over the last 17 games. Xavier is 10-1 ats over their last 11 when scoring at least 90 points the previous game and a staggering 20-9 ats over the last 29 games playing on a neutral site as a favorite. Dayton on the other hand has not done well recently. They are 1-6-1 ats over their last 8 games, 1-4 ats in their last 5 on a neutral site, and 0-5-1 ats in their last 6 playing a team with a SU winning record.
Essentially we have a team that statistically is better in almost every category and the trends are backing them as well.
I'll take Xavier -2 1/2 over Dayton at 6:30 for 3 JT units...
I have my final card for tonight and it will be a 3 pack special... I have Xavier -2 1/2 for 3 units already locked in.
Take Akron -3 1/2 over Western Michigan for 3 JT units at 7:00.
Maybe I am getting suckered in here but we have Akron that beat W. Michigan at their own stadium earlier this year and now play again. Akron is the better offensive and defensive team here not to mention they rebound better and have the better bench. If you look at W. Michigan's schedule they have not beaten many quality teams this year.
The trends favor Akron tremendously also. W. Michigan is 6-19-1 over their last 26 games ats on a neutral court, 5-16-1 ats following in their last 22 following an ats win, 1-4 ats in their last 5 ats as a dog between 0.5-6.5, and most importantly 1-7 ats the last 8 times they have played Akron.
Meanwhile Akron are 5-0 ats following a win in which they scored at least 90 points, 5-1 ats in their last 6 as a favorite of 0.5-6.5, 5-2-1 ats over their last 8 on a neutral court and did I mention that the favorite in this series is 14-3 ats over the last 17 games.
I'm biting here for sure and I will lay 3.5 with Akron at 7:00 for 3 units...
My final game is Indiana +10 -120 over Boston at 7:30 for 3 JT units....
I flat out think this is a lot of points to give a team especially when the team that's laying the points are not playing well right now. Did you know that fans were booing the Celtics their last game against Memphis and by the 4th quarter the stands were basically empty? Did you know that despite Indiana's crappy record they score more points a game than Boston, rebound the ball better, and have a better bench?
I think the guards for Indiana can at least contain Rondo and Allen. Meanwhile the big men up front for Indiana can out run Boston's front line all day long. I don't think the front court can hang with Indiana's young guys.
We have some nice trends that back my play up as well. Boston is 15-38-1 ats over the last 54 home games, 10-29 ats over their last 39 as a favorite of 5.0-10.5, 0-4 ats over their last 4 following a double digit loss at home(which means they don't bounce back like a championship team should do) and a paltry 1-8 ats over their last 9 home games versus a team with a losing record on the road.
Meanwhile Indiana are 6-2 ats over their last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in the previous game, 4-0 ats over the last 4 meetings against Boston, and the underdog in this series are 20-7 ats over the last 27 games.
The bottom line is Boston beat Indiana by 9 points the last time they played right before xmas. The game was actually tied going into the 4th quarter and Boston pulled away at the end. I think Boston was a better team then then they are now and I'm going to get 10.
I'll take the points. Indiana +10 -120(I bought a half a point) for 3 units tonight at 7:30.
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loss ... loss
T-bone went 2-1 for again yesterday and has two strong plays for you today. T-Bone went through all 39 college games and all the research and came up with these two winners.
7pm-Georgia Tech covered vs. UNC and T-Bone was all over it but we saw some things during that game that are very concerning. Maryland has been one of the hottest teams in the country at the right time. Terrapins are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5,9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall and 22-7 ATS in their last 29 vs. Atlantic Coast. Yellow Jackets are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Maryland -4 for 3 T-Bone units.
9pm- Richmond(24-7) will be facing UMass(12-19) in the A-10 tournament knowing it will probably be in the dance regardless of this outcome, but Richmond wants a conference title. Richmond is one of the best ATS teams in the country at 17-9-1 while UMass in a mere 12-14 ATS. Spiders are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games as a favorite, 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite,9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Atlantic 10. Minutemen are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games and are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as an underdog. Take Richmond -9.5 for 3 T-Bone units.
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